TUGAS BAB IX
HALAMAN 222 dan 223
LATIHAN 2
Lakukan prediksi
CHOL dengan variabel Independet TRIGLI, UM dan UM Kuadrat
a. Lakukan analisis Regresi masing-masing Independent variabel
b. Hitung SS Regression ( X3,X1, X2)
c. Hitung SS for Residual
d. Hitung Mean SS for Regression ( X3,X1, X2)
e. Hitung Mean SS for Residual
f. Hitung nilai F parsial
g. Hitung nilai r2
h. Buktikan penambahan X3 berperan dalam
memprediksi Y
UM
|
CHOL
|
TRIG
|
40
|
218
|
194
|
46
|
265
|
188
|
69
|
197
|
134
|
44
|
188
|
155
|
41
|
217
|
191
|
56
|
240
|
207
|
48
|
222
|
155
|
49
|
244
|
235
|
41
|
190
|
167
|
38
|
209
|
186
|
36
|
208
|
179
|
39
|
214
|
129
|
59
|
238
|
220
|
56
|
219
|
155
|
44
|
241
|
201
|
37
|
212
|
140
|
40
|
244
|
132
|
32
|
217
|
140
|
56
|
227
|
279
|
49
|
218
|
101
|
50
|
241
|
213
|
46
|
234
|
168
|
52
|
231
|
242
|
51
|
297
|
142
|
46
|
230
|
240
|
60
|
258
|
173
|
47
|
243
|
175
|
58
|
236
|
199
|
66
|
193
|
201
|
52
|
193
|
193
|
55
|
319
|
191
|
58
|
212
|
216
|
41
|
209
|
154
|
60
|
224
|
198
|
50
|
184
|
129
|
48
|
222
|
115
|
49
|
229
|
148
|
39
|
204
|
164
|
40
|
211
|
104
|
47
|
230
|
218
|
67
|
230
|
239
|
57
|
222
|
183
|
50
|
213
|
190
|
43
|
238
|
259
|
55
|
234
|
156
|
MODEL 1 : CHOL = β0 + β1 TRIG
Variables Entered/Removedb
|
|||
Model
|
Variables Entered
|
Variables Removed
|
Method
|
1
|
Trigliseridaa
|
.
|
Enter
|
a. All requested variables entered.
|
|||
b. Dependent Variable: Cholesterol
|
Model Summary
|
||||
Model
|
R
|
R Square
|
Adjusted R Square
|
Std. Error of the Estimate
|
1
|
.203a
|
.041
|
.019
|
25.273
|
a. Predictors: (Constant), Trigliserida
|
ANOVAb
|
||||||
Model
|
Sum of Squares
|
df
|
Mean Square
|
F
|
Sig.
|
|
1
|
Regression
|
1181.676
|
1
|
1181.676
|
1.850
|
.181a
|
Residual
|
27464.768
|
43
|
638.716
|
|||
Total
|
28646.444
|
44
|
||||
a. Predictors: (Constant), Trigliserida
|
||||||
b. Dependent Variable: Cholesterol
|
Coefficientsa
|
||||||
Model
|
Unstandardized Coefficients
|
Standardized Coefficients
|
t
|
Sig.
|
||
B
|
Std. Error
|
Beta
|
||||
1
|
(Constant)
|
203.123
|
17.156
|
11.840
|
.000
|
|
Trigliserida
|
.127
|
.093
|
.203
|
1.360
|
.181
|
|
a. Dependent Variable: Cholesterol
|
MODEL REGRESI : CHOL = 203.123 + 0.127 TRIG
MODEL 2 : CHOL = β0 + β1 UM
Variables Entered/Removedb
|
|||
Model
|
Variables Entered
|
Variables Removed
|
Method
|
1
|
Umura
|
.
|
Enter
|
a. All requested variables entered.
|
|||
b. Dependent Variable: Cholesterol
|
Model Summary
|
||||
Model
|
R
|
R Square
|
Adjusted R Square
|
Std. Error of the Estimate
|
1
|
.151a
|
.023
|
.000
|
25.514
|
a. Predictors: (Constant), Umur
|
ANOVAb
|
||||||
Model
|
Sum of Squares
|
df
|
Mean Square
|
F
|
Sig.
|
|
1
|
Regression
|
655.625
|
1
|
655.625
|
1.007
|
.321a
|
Residual
|
27990.819
|
43
|
650.949
|
|||
Total
|
28646.444
|
44
|
||||
a. Predictors: (Constant), Umur
|
||||||
b. Dependent Variable: Cholesterol
|
Coefficientsa
|
||||||
Model
|
Unstandardized Coefficients
|
Standardized Coefficients
|
t
|
Sig.
|
||
B
|
Std. Error
|
Beta
|
||||
1
|
(Constant)
|
204.048
|
22.093
|
9.236
|
.000
|
|
Umur
|
.445
|
.444
|
.151
|
1.004
|
.321
|
|
a. Dependent Variable: Cholesterol
|
MODEL REGRESI : CHOL = 204.048 + 0.445 UM
MODEL 3 : CHOL = β0 + β1 UMKWT
Variables Entered/Removedb
|
|||
Model
|
Variables Entered
|
Variables Removed
|
Method
|
1
|
Umur Kuadrata
|
.
|
Enter
|
a. All requested variables entered.
|
|||
b. Dependent Variable: Cholesterol
|
Model Summary
|
||||
Model
|
R
|
R Square
|
Adjusted R Square
|
Std. Error of the Estimate
|
1
|
.118a
|
.014
|
-.009
|
25.632
|
a. Predictors: (Constant), Umur Kuadrat
|
ANOVAb
|
||||||
Model
|
Sum of Squares
|
df
|
Mean Square
|
F
|
Sig.
|
|
1
|
Regression
|
396.227
|
1
|
396.227
|
.603
|
.442a
|
Residual
|
28250.217
|
43
|
656.982
|
|||
Total
|
28646.444
|
44
|
||||
a. Predictors: (Constant), Umur Kuadrat
|
||||||
b. Dependent Variable: Cholesterol
|
Coefficientsa
|
||||||
Model
|
Unstandardized Coefficients
|
Standardized Coefficients
|
t
|
Sig.
|
||
B
|
Std. Error
|
Beta
|
||||
1
|
(Constant)
|
217.420
|
11.555
|
18.816
|
.000
|
|
Umur Kuadrat
|
.003
|
.004
|
.118
|
.777
|
.442
|
|
a. Dependent Variable: Cholesterol
|
MODEL REGRESI : CHOL = 217.420 + 0.003 UMKWT
MODEL 4 : CHOL = β0 + β1 TRIG + β2 UM
Variables Entered/Removedb
|
|||
Model
|
Variables Entered
|
Variables Removed
|
Method
|
1
|
Trigliserida, Umura
|
.
|
Enter
|
a. All requested variables entered.
|
|||
b. Dependent Variable: Cholesterol
|
Model Summary
|
||||
Model
|
R
|
R Square
|
Adjusted R Square
|
Std. Error of the Estimate
|
1
|
.224a
|
.050
|
.005
|
25.452
|
a. Predictors: (Constant), Trigliserida, Umur
|
ANOVAb
|
||||||
rModel
|
Sum of Squares
|
df
|
Mean Square
|
F
|
Sig.
|
|
1
|
Regression
|
1437.719
|
2
|
718.860
|
1.110
|
.339a
|
Residual
|
27208.725
|
42
|
647.827
|
|||
Total
|
28646.444
|
44
|
||||
a. Predictors: (Constant), Trigliserida, Umur
|
||||||
b. Dependent Variable: Cholesterol
|
Coefficientsa
|
||||||
Model
|
Unstandardized Coefficients
|
Standardized Coefficients
|
t
|
Sig.
|
||
B
|
Std. Error
|
Beta
|
||||
1
|
(Constant)
|
192.155
|
24.554
|
7.826
|
.000
|
|
Umur
|
.292
|
.464
|
.099
|
.629
|
.533
|
|
Trigliserida
|
.108
|
.098
|
.173
|
1.099
|
.278
|
|
a. Dependent Variable: Cholesterol
|
MODEL REGRESI : CHOL = 192.155 + 0.108 TRI G + 0.292 UM
MODEL 5 : CHOL = β0 + β1 TRIG + β2 UMKWT
Variables Entered/Removedb
|
|||
Model
|
Variables Entered
|
Variables Removed
|
Method
|
1
|
Trigliserida, Umur Kuadrata
|
.
|
Enter
|
a. All requested variables entered.
|
|||
b. Dependent Variable: Cholesterol
|
Model Summary
|
||||
Model
|
R
|
R Square
|
Adjusted R Square
|
Std. Error of the Estimate
|
1
|
.212a
|
.045
|
.000
|
25.520
|
a. Predictors: (Constant), Trigliserida, Umur Kuadrat
|
ANOVAb
|
||||||
Model
|
Sum of Squares
|
df
|
Mean Square
|
F
|
Sig.
|
|
1
|
Regression
|
1292.618
|
2
|
646.309
|
.992
|
.379a
|
Residual
|
27353.826
|
42
|
651.282
|
|||
Total
|
28646.444
|
44
|
||||
a. Predictors: (Constant), Trigliserida, Umur Kuadrat
|
||||||
b. Dependent Variable: Cholesterol
|
Coefficientsa
|
||||||
Model
|
Unstandardized Coefficients
|
Standardized Coefficients
|
t
|
Sig.
|
||
B
|
Std. Error
|
Beta
|
||||
1
|
(Constant)
|
200.525
|
18.433
|
10.879
|
.000
|
|
Umur Kuadrat
|
.002
|
.005
|
.065
|
.413
|
.682
|
|
Trigliserida
|
.115
|
.098
|
.185
|
1.173
|
.247
|
|
a. Dependent Variable: Cholesterol
|
ESTIMASI MODEL REGRESI : CHOL = 200.525 + 0.115 TRIG + 0.002
UMKWT
MODEL 6 : CHOL = β0 + β1 TRIG + β2 UM
+ β3 UMKWT
Variables Entered/Removedb
|
|||
Model
|
Variables Entered
|
Variables Removed
|
Method
|
1
|
Umur, Trigliserida, Umur Kuadrata
|
.
|
Enter
|
a. All requested variables entered.
|
|||
b. Dependent Variable: Cholesterol
|
Model Summary
|
||||
Model
|
R
|
R Square
|
Adjusted R Square
|
Std. Error of the Estimate
|
1
|
.378a
|
.143
|
.080
|
24.475
|
a. Predictors: (Constant), Umur, Trigliserida, Umur Kuadrat
|
ANOVAb
|
||||||
Model
|
Sum of Squares
|
df
|
Mean Square
|
F
|
Sig.
|
|
1
|
Regression
|
4086.344
|
3
|
1362.115
|
2.274
|
.094a
|
Residual
|
24560.100
|
41
|
599.027
|
|||
Total
|
28646.444
|
44
|
||||
a. Predictors: (Constant), Umur, Trigliserida, Umur Kuadrat
|
||||||
b. Dependent Variable: Cholesterol
|
Coefficientsa
|
||||||
Model
|
Unstandardized Coefficients
|
Standardized Coefficients
|
t
|
Sig.
|
||
B
|
Std. Error
|
Beta
|
||||
1
|
(Constant)
|
-21.969
|
104.532
|
-.210
|
.835
|
|
Umur Kuadrat
|
-.088
|
.042
|
-3.035
|
-2.103
|
.042
|
|
Trigliserida
|
.079
|
.095
|
.126
|
.825
|
.414
|
|
Umur
|
9.220
|
4.269
|
3.132
|
2.160
|
.037
|
|
a. Dependent Variable: Cholesterol
|
MODEL REGRESI : CHOL = - 21.969 + 0.079 TRI + 9.220 UM – 0.088 UMKWT
Kita lakukan uji parsial F seperti
berikut (berdasarkan hasil-hasil yang sudah kita lakukan diatas).
ANOVA Tabel untuk TRIG dengan CHOL dan UM , UMKWT
Sumber
|
Df
|
SS
|
MS
|
F
|
r2
|
X1
|
1
|
1181.676
|
1181.676
|
1.973
|
0.143
|
Regresi X2│X1
|
1
|
256.043
|
256.043
|
0.427
|
|
X3│X1, X2
|
1
|
2.648,625
|
2.648,625
|
4.422
|
|
Residual
|
41
|
24560.100
|
599.027
|
||
Total
|
44
|
28646.444
|
No
|
Model Estimasi
|
F
|
r 2
|
1
|
Y= 203.123 + 0.127 TRIG
(0.093)
|
1.850
|
0.041
|
2
|
Y= 204.048 + 0.445 UM
(0.444)
|
1.007
|
0.023
|
3
|
Y= 217.420 + 0.003 UMKWT
(0.004)
|
0.603
|
0.014
|
4
|
Y= 192.155 + 0.108 TRI + 0.292 UM
(0.098) (0.464)
|
1.110
|
0.050
|
5
|
Y= 200.525 + 0.115 TRIG + 0.002 UMKWT
(0.098)
(0.005)
|
0.992
|
0.045
|
6
|
Y= 21.969 + 0.079 TRI + 9.220 UM – 0.088 UMKWT
(0.095)
(4.269)* (0.042)*
|
2.274
|
0.143
|
Angka didalam tanda kurung adalah standar eror
*bermakna ( p<0.05)
Buktikan Penambahan X3 berperan Dalam
memprediksi Y
Nilai F untuk penambahan independent variabel X3 = 4.222 >
F tabel 4.08 ini berarti hipotesa H0 ditolak artinya penambahan
Umur Kuadrat ( X 3) secara bermakna dapat memprediksi Y.
Model Regresi : CHOL = - 21.969 + 0.079
TRIG + 9.220 UM – 0.088 UMKWT
Kita bersimpulan bahwa :
a. Penambahan “ second
order” sesuai (fit) dengan nilai r2 = 0.128
b. Penambahan nilai r2 menjadi 0.143
pada “ thind order” hanya sebesar 0.015 adalah kecil
c. Kurva yang ada cukup
diterangkan dengan “second order”
HALAMAN 223
LATIHAN 3
Data Informasi sebagai berikut :
Model Estimasi 1 : Y = - 122.345 + 6.227
X
Model Estimasi 2 : Y = 32.091 – 3.051 X
+ 0.1176 X2
Model Estimasi 3 : Y = 114.621 – 10.620
X + 0.3247 X2 + 0.00173 X3
1.
Tabel Anova
Source
|
df
|
SS
|
MS
|
F
|
X
|
1
|
174.473,96
|
174.473,96
|
429,1691
|
Regresi X2│X1
|
1
|
10.525,44
|
10.515,44
|
25,8658
|
X3│X1, X2
|
1
|
415.19
|
415.19
|
1,02128
|
Residual
|
15
|
6098.08
|
406.538
|
|
Total
|
18
|
190.502,93
|
2. Tentukan Besaran r 2 Untuk ketiga model estimasi :
3.Nilai F untuk ketiga Model estimasi dan buat kesimpulan :
·
Nilai F model estimasi 1: 429.19 > F tabel 4.54, maka kesimpulan
perubahan penambahan independen variabel X secara bermakna meningkatkan
prediksi Y.
·
Nilai F model estimasi 2 : 25.87 > F tabel 4.54, maka kesimpulan
perubahan penambahan independen variabel X2 secara bermakna
meningkatkan prediksi Y.
·
Nilai F model estimasi 3 : 1.02 > F tabel 4.54, maka kesimpulan
perubahan penambahan independen variabel X tidak secara bermakna
meningkatkan prediksi Y.
4. Model yang terbaik Dari ketiganya : Y = -122.345 +
6.227 X
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar